Monthly market & economy update

G.L.A INVE$T RE$EARCH w/ Coach Kyle
Monthly Markets Update — Labor Day Weekend EditionNation,

Happy Saturday Maniacs! Welcome back to your favorite newsletter where my mission is to keep you “in the know” with what’s really going on with the stock market and it’s best long term investments.

The monthly jobs numbers came out yesterday and here are the Headline numbers:

• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 (well above economist forecasts of roughly 56,000–65,000).

• Unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

• Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-over-month to $37.75 and 3.1% year-over-year, all sound like good things to me, but at this point in the cycle i’m not sure if good news is actually good. The big worry or debate after the numbers came out yesterday was will the fed raise rates or not at his next meeting. Cathie Wood and ARK, Tom Lee, and Ron Barron continue to talk the long game and the productivity game. –

• Global real GDP has averaged about 3% since the Industrial revolution. The latest IMF World Economic Outlook Update (July 2026) projects global real GDP growth (PPP-weighted) as follows:

• 2026 (this year): 3.0%

• 2027: 3.4 .

• ARK’s working view (WHICH WE FULLY AGREE WITH) is that five converging platforms — AI, robotics, energy storage, public blockchains, and genomics — can at least double that growth rate by the end of this decade and then stay above 7% longterm.

• Elon’s 10–15% talk is not fantasy if the cost curves keep doing what they are doing.

• That is the whole game for long-term innovation investors like us. Not next quarter’s print. IMHO we are living through another five-fold lift in real growth the way the steam engine , railroads, electricity, telephony, and the internal combustion engine lifted the world from~0.6% to 3%.

• This time there are five platforms, not three, and AI is the dynamo running through all of them. What long-term owners need to lock in Real growth up, inflation down. That tug-of-war is the setup.

• ARK expects productivity and collapsing unit costs to surprise inflation to the low side — possibly negative — while real activity accelerates. Nominal GDP and the 10-year can therefore base rather than explode even if growth rips. Rates have been rising more on real-growth expectations than on inflation expectations. Equities making highs into that is not a contradiction; it is the market sniffing the real side. Pre-Depression (industrial-revolution) yield curves were inverted more than half the time. Long rates priced the deflationary undertow of new tech; short rates priced the boom in the real economy. We just lived through a deep inversion without a full recession. Manufacturing, housing, small business, and lower-income consumers felt it. The aggregate did not break. 

Headline PCE at 3.7% is the number Chairman Warsh highlighted at Jackson Hole. Trimmed-mean PCE is 2.3%. Private measures show headline closer to 2.4% and core near 1.3%. Oil’s Iran-war spike looks temporary. Abu Dhabi left OPEC, production is at records, Venezuela is in play, U.S. output is 13.6 million barrels with heavy exports, and transport is migrating onto a grid powered by gas, nuclear, hydro, solar, and wind.

ARK would not be shocked by oil revisiting the long-term ~$30 average as producers race reserves out of the ground before demand peaks. The cost curves are the deflation engine. One genome: ~$2.7 billion in 2003, under $100 now, heading toward $10. AI inference costs falling on the order of 99.99% per year. Those numbers are entering healthcare and every industry. Nothing fights inflation like productivity. 

 Token demand and data-center chip spend outrunning ARK’s own January forecasts. Fiscal picture is less apocalyptic than the $40 trillion headlines. Debt/GDP is high. Debt versus corporate equities has been falling toward late-90s lows — the last time we got a surplus — because wealth creation is carrying the load. Deficits have tipped down on defense and outsized corporate tax refunds that are being reinvested. ARK still sees a path toward Bessent’s ~3% of GDP goal if real growth surprises.

What we don’t want is Wealth taxes which would kill the animal spirits that make that math work and hand the innovation race to China. Please guys Don’t do it! Capex in non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft has broken a 20–25 year ceiling. The 1990s internet analog is the right mental model, and we are only a few years past the ChatGPT marker. AI capex (Spending/investing) from the hyperscallers is not “bubblish”; it is early infrastructure. Household employment just printed a boom (450k+ vs. a soft payroll expectation).

 RAMP data says companies that lean into AI are adding heads faster, not firing them. Boomer retirement plus tighter immigration points to labor shortages, not a jobless wasteland. Youth entry-level softness is real — which is why the youth needs to learn AI, and they need to learn long term investing which Im working on. Gold peaked the day Warsh was nominated. If U.S. returns on capital keep rising versus the rest of the world, the dollar can firm and gold can stabilize or fade. Bitcoin/gold is trying to break out with historically low correlation — a risk-on and risk-off asset in a world of creative destruction. Credit spreads and bank CDS still show no systemic panic. Creative destruction will hit software, autos, and anything with a legacy stack. Railroads had 200 bankruptcies on hope. AI already has huge revenues and fat returns on investment (think mid-20s cost per gigawatt versus $50B willingness to pay). Housing has been the laggard. Inventory and spec building flipped the wrong way on a brief rate dip. That is a sector story, not the innovation story. The market is still pricing 3% forever. We think it will be wayyyyyy higher, that’s basically the main part of my strategy and how I will attack the next 5 years. In baseball terms, we are in the second inning of a double header of growth and productivity that will change the world forever. The companies that solve the largest problems will have the largest returns over the next 5-10 years. The best part of this setup is that very few people understand what is about to happen.

TOP TEN BULLISH SIGNALS FOR THE G.L.A. INVEST NATION

1. Five platforms, not three like the early 1900’s. AI + robotics + energy storage + blockchains + multiomics will have a larger impact than the railroads + phone + power + Internal combustion automobiles in the early 1900’s.

2. Real GDP can double (or more) while consensus sleeps at 3.1%. Doubling is ARK’s conservative line. 7–8% compounding this decade, with 10–15% in the Musk zone if adoption compounds. Own the platforms that cause the revision.

3. Deflationary tech vs. boom-time real growth. Collapsing inference and sequencing costs plus grid-bound transport = inflation surprise lower. Rates can base. Equities can live with that.

4. AI capex breakout after a 20–30 year range. This looks like the early internet capex wave, not the late one. Token and chip-spend revisions are already running hot versus Big Ideas 2026.

5. Oil demand peaking into a supply flood. OPEC cohesion cracking, U.S. export machine on, transport electrifying. A move toward $30 is a tax cut and a margin gift to everything that uses energy and computes.

6. Employment + AI = more jobs at the firms that adopt. Strong household survey, longer workweek, RAMP outperformance for AI-aggressive companies. Labor shortage risk > mass-unemployment risk.

7. Debt carried by equity wealth, deficits rolling over. 90s analog: equity boom improved debt-carrying capacity and helped produce a surplus. Growth is the cleaner path than austerity theater.

8. Warsh Fed looking at the right gauges. Trimmed-mean and private core near or below 2% while headline is noisy. A growth-friendly Fed that does not tighten into a productivity boom is rocket fuel for duration of the innovation cycle.

9. Bitcoin/gold turning with low correlation. New monetary rail + scarce digital collateral + insurance against counterparty risk in a creative-destruction wave. The ratio breaking out is a regime signal, not a trade.

10. U.S. ROIC magnet. Faster growth than the rest of the world, fat corporate profits, capital surplus offsetting a wider trade gap. Capital follows return. Innovation clusters here if we don’t tax the animal spirits to death.

My plan is continue to invest in the best of the best, diversified tech juggernauts lead by visionaries that are solving the largest problems. We are investing with a buy, hold, and manage strategy to achieve exponential growth. We must maintain high volatility tolerance and patience with daily dedication to the research because with big innovation we will have big disruption.

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— Coach Kyle
G.L.A INVE$T RE$EARCH -This is research and coaching commentary, not personalized advice. Innovation is volatile. Always consider your time horizon, risk tolerance, and your investment objective.