“Private Market Weekly”
Issue #1 – 5 Private Giants Lining Up For 2026
Setting the Stage: Innovation, Volatility, and the 2026 IPO Wave
We believe we are in the early innings of the largest innovation and productivity boom in human history, driven by AI, robotics, blockchains, Genomics, and energy storage. Over the next 5–10 years, we expect these platforms to dominate equity market returns while many legacy incumbents are massively disrupted, creating violent volatility for investors who do not truly “know what they own.”
Databricks – The AI Data Operating System Of The Enterprise
Founders & Story
Databricks was founded in 2013 by Ali Ghodsi and several creators of Apache Spark out of UC Berkeley, building a unified data and AI platform that sits at the center of modern enterprise analytics. Ghodsi has repeatedly emphasized long‑term, infrastructure‑level value creation versus chasing hype cycles, which aligns well with our owner mindset.TAM, Moat, and Growth
Databricks attacks a massive TAM across data warehousing, data engineering, and AI/ML platforms as global enterprises re‑platform their data stacks for AI. The company recently reported annualized revenue above roughly the mid‑single‑digit billions with growth around the mid‑60% range and positive free cash flow, at a private valuation of about 134 billion dollars after a multi‑billion‑dollar round plus sizable new debt capacity. Its moat is anchored in its lakehouse architecture, deep integrations with open‑source technologies, and a rapidly expanding AI stack (including conversational and database products) that creates very sticky, platform‑level relationships.Short‑Term Catalysts & IPO Rumors
Databricks has been described as “IPO‑ready,” with CEO Ali Ghodsi stating they are prepared to go public “when the time is right,” and multiple sources now frame 2026 as the likely window, potentially in the back half of the year depending on markets and SEC timing. The company’s recent multi‑billion‑dollar equity and debt raise, combined with accelerating AI adoption and higher public‑market appetite for profitable growth, are clear near‑term catalysts and, in our view, classic pre‑IPO positioning moves.Key Risks (And Why We Still Like It)
Risks include intense competition from hyperscalers and data‑warehouse incumbents, dependency on large enterprise budgets, and potential multiple compression if AI enthusiasm cools. Despite that, we view Databricks as one of the foundational data/AI operating systems of this era, and we believe it could be a compelling long‑term compounder after IPO for investors properly positioned for AI infrastructure.
SpaceX – Xai, X.com , Starlink, and the Trillion‑Dollar Ambition
Founder & Vision
SpaceX is led by Elon Musk, a visionary founder we already study closely via Tesla and other projects, known for using first‑principles engineering to attack massive, capital‑intensive problems. SpaceX’s mission spans reusable rockets, global satellite internet (Starlink), and increasingly, AI‑driven space infrastructure via its merger with xAI.TAM, Moat, and Growth
The TAM here is not just launch services; it includes global connectivity, defense and intelligence contracts, and potential space‑based data centers. Starlink alone is projected to generate tens of billions in revenue within the next few years, becoming the majority of SpaceX’s business, with one forecast seeing Starlink revenue near the high‑teens billions in 2026 and ~80% of total revenue. SpaceX’s moat is its unmatched launch cadence, cost advantages from reusability, and vertical integration from rockets to satellites to services.Short‑Term Catalysts & IPO Rumors
Elon Musk has publicly confirmed plans for a 2026 IPO and is reportedly targeting a valuation north of 1 trillion dollars, with some commentary even suggesting potential toward 1.5 trillion as Starlink scales. Recent reports indicate SpaceX is considering a dual‑class share structure and expects to proceed with a listing this year even after integrating xAI, which we view as a major catalyst both for capital access and for public‑market exposure to the “space + AI” theme.Key Risks (And Why We Still Like It)
Risks include extreme capital intensity, launch and regulatory risk, geopolitical exposure, and the potential for governance complexity around dual‑class shares and Musk’s multi‑company commitments. In spite of these, we see SpaceX as one of the most important infrastructure businesses of the next few decades and a potentially generational vehicle for exposure to space, satellite broadband, and AI‑enabled edge compute once public.
Cerebras Systems – A Pure‑Play AI Compute Disruptor
Founders & Story
Cerebras Systems was founded by Andrew Feldman and a team of chip veterans to build wafer‑scale AI accelerators that radically increase compute density for large AI workloads. Unlike conventional GPU approaches, Cerebras designs single‑wafer systems optimized for training and inference at extreme scale, positioning the company as a focused rival to incumbents in AI compute.TAM, Moat, and Growth
Cerebras attacks the exploding TAM in AI infrastructure, as enterprises and governments demand alternatives to GPU bottlenecks and supply constraints. The company has raised substantial capital across several rounds, moving from a private valuation of around 4 billion to roughly 8.1 billion and now being poised to raise further capital at a significantly higher valuation, reflecting accelerating demand for its systems.Short‑Term Catalysts & IPO Rumors
Reports indicate Cerebras had explored an IPO earlier but delayed, and commentary now points to 2026 as a realistic window for a public debut at a substantially higher valuation than prior attempts, benefiting from a still “white‑hot” AI market. Additional private funding expected in early 2026, along with broader AI‑chip scarcity and possible strategic partnerships, could serve as catalysts heading into any S‑1 filing.Key Risks (And Why We Still Like It)
Key risks include intense competition from entrenched players in GPUs and custom ASICs, high R&D and capex requirements, and the need to prove sustained software and ecosystem adoption around its hardware. Nonetheless, as a high‑conviction, founder‑driven challenger in one of the most important bottlenecks in AI (compute), we believe Cerebras could be a powerful long‑term growth story post‑IPO for investors seeking differentiated AI infrastructure exposure.
Kraken – Crypto Market Infrastructure Growing Up
Founders & Culture
Kraken was founded by Jesse Powell and built a reputation as one of the more compliance‑focused, security‑conscious crypto exchanges, particularly through past industry crises. The firm has historically emphasized strong custody practices and regulatory engagement while still serving a broad global user base in digital assets and derivatives.TAM, Moat, and Growth
Kraken’s TAM is the global crypto trading, staking, and custody market, which we believe is still early in the broader blockchain and tokenization adoption cycle. The company has raised significant private capital at multi‑billion‑dollar valuations and has continued to build out spot, derivatives, and institutional‑grade services, positioning it as one of the key on‑ramps into the crypto economy.Short‑Term Catalysts & IPO Rumors
Media and market commentary in 2025 highlighted that Kraken was preparing for an IPO in 2026, with one report suggesting a target around the first quarter. The firm has been consistent for years about its intention to eventually go public, and recent reports of confidential filings and balance‑sheet strengthening suggest that preparation is well underway, potentially making Kraken an early‑cycle crypto IPO that could reopen the listing window for the sector.Key Risks (And Why We Still Like It)
Crypto exchanges live at the intersection of regulatory risk, market‑cycle volatility, and technology/security risk. Yet we see regulated, battle‑tested platforms like Kraken as critical infrastructure for the blockchain theme, and for investors who want direct exposure to crypto market picks‑and‑shovels, we believe Kraken could be a strong long‑term candidate after IPO—if sized appropriately and with full awareness of cyclicality.
Stripe – The Fintech Operating System For The Internet
Founders & Story
Stripe was founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison and has become one of the most important payments and fintech infrastructure companies in the world, powering online payments for millions of businesses. The company has expanded from simple payment processing into billing, treasury, embedded finance, and tools for global internet‑native companies.TAM, Moat, and Growth
Stripe’s TAM is enormous: global digital payments, merchant acquiring, and software‑enabled financial services as commerce continues shifting online. Its moat is driven by powerful network effects (developer adoption, merchant integrations, ecosystem of APIs), brand, and the breadth of its product suite that allows businesses to standardize on Stripe as a single operating layer for money movement.Short‑Term Catalysts & IPO Rumors
Stripe has long been cited among the top potential mega‑IPOs and is regularly listed in 2026 IPO “watch lists,” even though the company has repeatedly opted to stay private longer. Recent large‑scale secondaries and balance‑sheet moves, along with more public commentary about being “IPO‑ready” when markets normalize, keep 2026 firmly on the table as a plausible listing window in our view.Key Risks (And Why We Still Like It)
Risks include margin pressure from competition, regulatory scrutiny over payments and KYC/AML, and macro sensitivity in merchant volumes. Even so, we see Stripe as a core infrastructure asset for digital commerce and embedded finance, and a likely long‑duration compounder post‑IPO for investors seeking exposure to the intersection of software and financial rails.
Original edition -Click to View Our Investing Bible
Why These 5 Fit the G.L.A. Playbook
All five of these companies map directly onto the game board we care about for the next 5–10 years:
Databricks – AI and data infrastructure at the core of enterprise transformation.
SpaceX – Space, satellite broadband, and AI‑enabled infrastructure.
Cerebras Systems – Next‑gen AI compute to relieve GPU bottlenecks.
Kraken – Regulated crypto and blockchain market infrastructure.
Stripe – Global fintech and digital payments rails.
Each is founder‑led or founder‑shaped, tackles an enormous TAM, and appears to be building deep, durable moats in its niche. Short‑term IPO timing, valuations, and trading action will always be noisy; we care about what these businesses can earn and compound over 5–10+ years. In our view, all five could be attractive long‑term holdings after IPO for investors who do the work, size positions intelligently, and are psychologically prepared for severe volatility along the way.
As innovation accelerates, we believe portfolios must be deliberately positioned to benefit from AI, robotics, blockchain, and energy storage, rather than accidentally over‑exposed to legacy incumbents that may be disrupted. That means knowing exactly what we own, why we own it, and what risks we are accepting—and being brutally selective about which companies we let into the portfolio. Our commitment to clients and subscribers is simple: we will stay obsessive about the daily research so you can focus on thinking and decision‑making, not chasing headlines.
Important Disclaimer
This newsletter is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not investment advice or financial advice. G.L.A. INVE$T RESEARCH does not provide personalized investment recommendations, does not manage money, and is not a licensed financial advisor, broker, or registered investment adviser (thankfully). All opinions expressed are strictly our independent views and may change without notice; you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and should consult a licensed financial professional before buying or selling any security.